Witness case studies of some high profile business failures in recent memory. Sears, Kodak are two examples of companies that once thrived but didn’t adapt. One could fix blame upon disruptive technologies or market upheaval. Such companies stick with their game plan because either status quo or complacency or denial. Capital investment in infrastructure can make it difficult to evolve.
Our enterprise is no different and we know that we are at a crossroads. The decision has been made to shift gears. Whereas previously, we were Almond Orchard and Wine Grape farmers with emphasis on the almond tree side. We will now transition solely to the vineyard business going forward.
Background Note
An orchard has a typical lifespan of 20-25 years. When an orchard is no longer viable it is deleted and re-established. There is a 5 year wait for tree replants to grow from nursery size to the threshold of crop [income] production. Ours (new in 1998) is soon approaching EOL.
Risk
Almond commodity prices are fairly stable for the moment but are experiencing downward pressure from the endless additions of new acreage year by year.
Irrigation water is about to become much more expensive with government entities seeking to monitor and regulate its usage.
The existing trees are enduring the effects of increasing salts attributable to the aquifer and our local soil characteristic.
New orchard development costs are immense.
Objective
Strengthen the empire that Estee Strombotne has built during the last several decades and to position ourselves for future greatness. Ready to come about? This new direction will offer challenges and exciting times ahead!
This photograph is hand dated 1910. The Randrup family lived in Copenhagen (København) Denmark The letter K on the registration plate so designates. The owners hand draped over the front seat armrest and his shoe on the running board seem to be rather crudely inked out. (early days for photoshop)
The carbide headlamps used acetylene gas but the side marker lamps were oil burning and that may explain why the lense on the passenger side is blackened. It would have been used, as required, for street side parking during the night.
There’s a folding top but it’s a fair weather open car without windshield or side windows. I would say very low mileage based upon the state of clean and shine. See the messy bits on the pristine roadway substrate inside of the front year tire. I hope that this automobile wasn’t blamed. Good reason to check your shoes before coming indoors!
The 1910 Randrup family photo op featuring the brass era touring car above has been identified. It was a difficult task because I only had the first 3 design letters visible on the radiator: “Ber” and come to think of it; that longhand script style was pixelated and no doubt in a foreign language to boot.
Typing just three letters into a Google Search did not result in a handy autofill suggestion! I did however manage to find a comprehensive list of makes whose name began with the letter B. Matching up the next two letters narrowed that list considerably and voila. After selecting a few of these near matches, comparing images of early cars, fender and radiator shapes I found a match. The dead ringer confirmation is the unique “B” signature script of the name on the radiator which was clear in other comparison photo records.
It’s a French made Berliet motorcar and as a company went on to a long history but one not well known in the USA — except for one obscurity. The Berliet design and manufacturing rights were licensed to the American Locomotive Company of New York. They attempted to capitalize on an American perceived exotic european excellence theme but note that the eye catching brass Berliet logotype on the radiator was struck.
It’s on our minds; How are the tariffs affecting sales? Attention is directed toward China which is a player. According to market following pundits, it’s too early to tell.
Top ten export markets — alongside the USA’s domestic deliveries for scale — These 10 represent 65% of total exports. Source: Almond Almanac 2017
Overall the outlook for Almonds are the picture of health but the latest snapshot, which would be from June, is mixed. Shipments were down 11% but for the year to date shipments are up 8% over last year. (This is good because the USDA estimates that the 2018 Almond Crop will be record breaking.) China and select markets are presented:
Source: June Position Report
“Everybody wants to know how the tariffs will affect the shipments. Unfortunately, it will be months before we know. Almonds will be more expensive to the consumer causing concern; prices they haven’t seen since the 2015 crop.” – Panoche Creek Packing Almond Market Brief for July 2018
As previously briefed, we can expect a mandate reducing and ultimately prohibiting overdrafting of our aquifer supply. Legislation was signed into law in 2014 to be overseen by the California Department of Water Resources. Specifically, the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act ( SGMA ) is a compliance framework that delegates responsibility to local level management entities to develop and implement a plan toward that end.
Our farm property lays within the local jurisdiction of the McMullin Area Groundwater Sustainability Agency (MAGSA ) or GSA for short. The GSA is developing and implementing a plan to be approved and tracked by the state and will have the authority to assess fees, adopt rules and conduct enforcement. Our GSA must work collectively with other GSAs under the direction of a Joint Powers Authority GSA (Fresno County and its 2 Water Districts).
Plan development must be complete by year 2020. Coincidentally, our previous ranch manager, Don Cameron, is a director and co-chairman of the Raisin City Water District and thereby one of the five board members of the Joint Powers Authority GSA. He is a prominent voice and is active in the direction of GSA policy as you will note further on.
Responsibility
The MAGSA must determine its over-drafting responsibility for the region. Realize that the aquifer is vast and does not recognize political boundaries. As you might surmise neighboring GSAs will make a case that “their” groundwater share is flowing into and being used up by ours. It has been [unofficially] estimated that 125,000 acre feet of groundwater is over-drafted in the MAGSA each year.
This is Us
A solution (?)
A possible plan to achieve sustainability (Don Cameron’s) involves the idea of replenishment through the diversion of flood water flows when they naturally occur. These flows, which would otherwise be lost to the sea, would instead be funneled to select crop land holding areas within the GSA. Over time the standing water would join the aquifer through gravitational percolation or perhaps more quickly by way of dry wells — a reverse pumping concept or groundwater recharge. Funding for recharge study and actual testing have been conducted by Don Cameron as proof of concept. Phase I of his McMullin On-Farm Recharge Project on Terranova Ranch, Inc land holdings will be completed by the end of this year at a cost of $12 million in federal funding. Don Cameron holds title of Vice President and General Manager at Terranova. Phase I of the project is limited and specific to Terranova. It is not certain that there will be a Phase II or that our location in proximity might be included.
Outcomes
A recent idea, the concept of selling or transferring groundwater rights, is gaining traction. Renewable Energy Credits (REC) have established a precedent which may be applied to irrigation supply. In theory, a farmer who fallows his field and discontinues pumping could sell his share credit as if it were a commodity. A buyer would use his purchase to offset or reduce penalties for what would otherwise be considered an overage. In another example, Terranova might do the same by justifying that their recharge system experiment puts back more than they take out. They enjoy sustainability while marketing the excess credit.
We are hopeful that solutions and agreements can be achieved. Last year we used 993.4 acre feet of water. A scenario might have us reducing pumping by “x” percent in order to do our part. Agony would be GSA failure to meet SGMA established timeline goals and the state assuming restrictive control compounded with significant flowage derived monetary penalties/fees.
Extra credit for enduring the following PowerPoint Presentation:
Our California farmland is an ideal environment for the crops that we grow with many sunshine filled days and until recently abundant water supply. California has been experiencing a protracted drought which we acknowledge as lengthy and significant. According to recorded statistics most droughts last only for a season or two or three. The previous record was way back in the dirty thirties . The current 2006-2017 drought has eclipsed this infamous Dust Bowl event by 3 years in length and counting.
Supply
Natural rainfall, which occurs strictly during winter months and is of limited supply for sustaining annual range grass and desert shrub. It is not relied upon in our arid valley and must be augmented by irrigation.
Managed resources imported from mountainous flows primarily to our North and East. This supply travels via canal and aqueduct, is subsidized and controlled by public government. It is used for flood control and is doled out to farmers and urban communities on an as needed basis. Cost effective but limited in scope.
Natural aquifer aka ground water or the water table. This is our relied upon and only source option. Expensive but readily available.
…and Demand
These drought years coupled with growing needs have placed strain on the availability of surface water. With scarcity comes limits and many of those farmers who enjoyed the good fortune of cheap water in the past have been forced to drill wells for supplement as a matter of necessity. This in turn has placed an unprecedented burden on the aquifer. Whereas, the water table had been reliably stable over time we are witnessing a certain fragility. The acceleration of diminishing water quantity and water quality degradation in terms of mineral content is cause for alarm. Also, as an extreme, sea water ingress and land subsidence.
Reaction
Alarm bells have captured the attention of environmentalists, media, and regulators scrutinizing where water goes, who is to blame, and corrective ideas. Politics and economics are a complicated tangle but for sure, changes are afoot. In the short term we expect to see usage monitoring on a granular individual farm basis e.g. registering number of wells and reporting of outputs. In the future, regulatory restrictions and [reduced] usage mandates.
On a routine basis we monitor our local water table for fluctuation, measure outflow usage, and sample water quality so we are well aware of these issues first hand.
So, while we are seeing darkening clouds on the horizon we are hoping that they will result in much needed rain. Our response must be to comply with the mandates and adapting as necessary to remain viable.
As farmers, we take an interest in food and how it’s grown. There is a YouTube channel — True Food TV — that you will find educational and entertaining. An example from their How Does It Grow series is about Asparagus. Every facet was news to me and you might find it interesting as well.
Every item on my shelf of items has a story. This is an oil pressure transducer. Its design goal is to alert the operator, via red light and aural warning when there is no pressure. It is a 7 psi switch that taps into an engine’s oil gallery. Its default is closed meaning that when oil pressure is non existent it allows 12 volt current to complete a circuit and provide warning. If there is pressure the switch is open and therefore, no circuit. Everything is quiet and the machine in operation is assumed to be a-okay.
Tracing a route down the Savannah River on my way out to sea, I heard a chirping noise that turned out to be the alarm system just described. It wasn’t a full on signal just an indication that it was on the cusp of something. Imagine my concern. I reduced the throttle on my auxiliary diesel and the alarm came full on. Adding power and the alarm grew silent. It was unnerving, without an actual pressure gauge for verification, I couldn’t know whether, the engine was on its last legs or indication system anomaly.
I decided to error on the side of caution and discontinued engine usage, relying on the wind and sailpower to delivery me home. If the engine was to die it would perform a final task of delivering me the remaining few yards and into the waiting marina berth at end of journey.
The diesel ran fine when restarted for arrival and when shutdown safely back at home port. Further, the antagonizing low pressure warning from before never recurred. Phew! I had been under pressure. Now I need to confirm if in fact the transducer switch had perished or was it trying to tell the truth.
There are just a few causes of low oil pressure:
Oil level extremely low
Oil viscosity very weak due to contamination and thinning
Engine wear tolerances usually bearings or oil pump
The oil quantity was easily ruled out as I use the dipstick check as a matter of pre-flight. The quality of the oil itself was a bit harder. There wasn’t any coolant mixed in so that was quickly discounted. I couldn’t be sure that diesel fuel wasn’t leaking into the crankcase. A laboratory oil analysis would be handy because all I could witness was slimy black ooze squeezed between fingers. That leaves the third bullet – this engine – which definitely qualifies. It has been in use for over 30 years and while loving cared for, it has aged.
Process of elimination: I pulled the oil filter and poured its contents into a plastic cup. I could have sent it off to a lab but I presented it to an experienced type in the boatyard facility for a free opinion. The pronouncement was plain ol’ used diesel crankcase oil. No unusual appearance or telltale odor.
That leaves the ultimate showdown — engine vs indication. I sourced a generic pressure gauge that when fitted to the port where the [removed] transducer switch had lived, would solve the question once-and-for-all.
The TEST: Ran engine through various speed regimes. Starting cold and also running under load at normal operating temperature.
Initial observation is that the pressure transducer switch is suspect. All of the readings were well above the 7 PSI threshold of the switch. It will be replaced. The only troubling aspect were some of the erratic recordings. This may be because of the simple gauge utilized. I did see some spikes that couldn’t be accounted for. In any event, 45 psi seems to be the average norm and an acceptable result.
Not completely convinced. Follows is a diagram of the internal pressure regulating valve. Has the appearances of a complex engineering diagram but in reality it’s just a spherical ball held against a relief orifice by a simple spring.
This is such a basic design and would be a rare point of failure. It either works or it doesn’t but might be explanation for the slight variances or fluctuations. A quality gauge would have dampening built in as a feature to eliminate erratic needle movement.
The engine manual lists standard pressure range as 35.56 ~ 49.78 as spec. I feel more confident after this test but it’s still on watch. I will continue to monitor (under pressure) until full trust is restored.
This is a push-pin map which displays all of the fly-in spots, in no particular order — airport destinations that span the 43 years of my flying hobby / career. Some were a one time hop; others were revisited on many occasions.
I can safely claim to have seen the USA — well, from an aerial perspective and the 679 local airports that are displayed herein. The most impressive thing, in my mind, is not places that I have visited but the many many airports that I did not! For proof of this just zoom out the map.
12,152 logged flights, each with a takeoff and a landing 😉
This 475 nm cruise was a mix of coastal offshore and the AICW. Each have challenges. They both offer scenic splendor with a bit of adventuring
Typically, the inside passage is a pleasant ride with smooth water and most would choose it for comfort. It is much slower because of its twists and turns. Due to lack of maneuvering space it can’t reliably be sailed and must be motored. In fact, the ICW is very narrow in most cases and a rigid course line must be strictly followed to avoid getting stuck in the mud (run aground). Further, it is generally unwise to traverse the ICW during darkness for it is difficult to spot hazards to navigation. With a bit of planning there are many option locations for stopping to rest and at days end. I find the venue a nice change of pace and even though helmsmanship is very high workload it is likely that one will have a genuine restful night at anchor — just be mindful of the mosquitoes.
Coastal offshore is very different and you must have a stomach for it as there is constant motion depending on the sea state. Aside from the continual action attributable to wave and swell, it can be somewhat relaxing and less stressful, your body does adapt to this environment. Glorious sailing is possible and one is able to minimize the use of noisy auxiliary diesel power. Talmid, with a displacement hull / full keel, is happiest in the deep blue and with shallows and bridge crossings not being a factor. With an adequate watch routine you needn’t make layovers and can track nonstop. If wind permits, follow a rhumbline course and the miles click by. The autopilot steers your course freeing the mind to keep tabs on the big picture and contemplate life.
