Tag Archives: Almonds

Big Data

Horticulture

We farmers look for ways to maintain productivity. Aerial study by camera drone, soil moisture sensors and weather from satellites are tools for data focused farming. In a recent post we discussed irrigation water testing. Last month almond tree leaf samples were collected and the leaf tissue analyzed and our West Block and East Block results are in. For almond, leaf analysis is more useful in diagnosing mineral deficiencies and toxicities than is soil analysis. This is because soil analysis does not indicate whether plants are able to uptake the nutrients. The leaf tells us about [nitrogen] nutrient levels which is crucial for plant health and yield. (‘you are what you eat‘)

D & D Agricultural Laboratory performs the service for us. It would be interesting to be on site to witness the leaf collection method. For example, do they sample the 4th tree in every 4th row? Should you look at strong trees or weak ones? From which part of the tree to they take the leaf and why? answer

In the laboratory, they wash sample leaves in a weak detergent mixture, rinse them in distilled water and dry them at 65 degrees C. The leaves are then ground and a subsample analyzed to determine the content of the requested elements. The macronutrients N, P, K, Ca, Mg and S are usually expressed as a percentage and the micronutrients in part per million (ppm). These results are judged against known standards. For each nutrient, there is a correlation between its concentration in the plant and the yield of the plant.
The curve below describes this correlation. This curve is referred to as a “yield response curve”.  [ reference , reference2 ]

Interpretation is provided graphically and comparatively over previous year efforts by our lab. Tissue testing does little to explain the reason for the nutritional disorder. It is only an alert and can help to identify or explain visual cues.

So, how are we doing? Sampling is best done in July but in this early peek; things look good. Someday technology may allow growers to identify what an orchard needs and provide remedy on a tree by tree basis. That would truly be Big Data.

Blue Diamond Growers Crop Progress Update Report for April

Several storm events during the period dropped significant amounts of rainfall over the orchards, with precipitation totals for the month ranging from  ½ to 1 inch from Fresno County south. Growers also endured several windy days that knocked nuts from the trees, broke branches and blew over a few trees.

Observers are reporting that the 2017 crop is developing well. Nuts are now fully sized, with the most advanced examples of the Nonpareil now beginning to show the first signs of solidification. Trees in all areas of the state have been shedding unfertilized nuts and those that they are unable to carry to maturity. However, this normal process has been a bit aggravated by the winds experienced during the month. Many have reported lush tree growth this year as the orchards take advantage of the mild temperatures. However, growers throughout the Central Valley have reported that the extended period of saturated soils during the winter and spring has resulted in weakened and dying trees. The repeated heavy rains experienced this year have promoted phytophthora root rot infections in many areas. As temperatures rise and water requirements increase, the dying roots of the infected trees are unable to draw water from the soil, resulting in weakened or dead trees. The continuing rain has inspired growers in the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valley’s to begin treatments to prevent Scab and Rust. These fungal infections can defoliate trees later in the season. However, the only effective method of control is through preventative treatments made prior to the appearance of the disease.

Almond Crop Estimate

Marketing

…and Contest! Woah boy. The Panoche Creek Packing publishes a newsletter titled: In A Nutshell; subtitled: Predictions and Trends for the California Almond Market. Panoche Creek markets our almond crop so it’s their dutyto keep tabs on industry trends regards to sales pricing and volume. The two are linked of course but the volume aspect is of particular interest to them because — job security!

So every year they host a just for fun event where their Grower Customers (like we) are invited to submit a value number that predicts the future. The results are published and a winner announced.

2017 Crop Estimate Contest
For our 2017 crop Estimate contest the prize will be $ 1,000. This year’s rules follow: The closest guess to the receipts of the 2017 crop, as shown on the March 2018 position report published by the Almond Board of California, will be the winner. The winner wilt be rewarded with a $1,000 cash prize. One entry per farm organization… etc. etc. 

I am not one to participate in lotteries, raffles, and drawings and less so in a public (real names) pronouncement of a guess. The aforementioned results are tabulated and if your submission happens to land too far outside the crowd median one might appear, ahem — uninformed. Embarrassing.

I did establish some Cred when I actually WON! the prize a few years back. Now I’m wondering how I can repeat that performance and live up to the fame. If this year’s guesstimate is way off the mark this time then I will have been a won-hit-wonder and everyone will know.

How does one derive a good number? Well “Ed”, the last year’s winner, bet 2,126,896,000 pounds (against 2,131,006,583 actual).  That’s a lot of nuts. The figure that I picked in 2014 was 1,901,449,000. Since then statewide there have been existing orchards removed and new orchards established. There are sources that monitor bearing acreage. Next to know is the average yield per acre. Yield in pounds per acre X number of acres = that big number in billions.  The trick is to predict the variances be they inaccuracies in the acreage estimates or fluctuations in the yield due to weather, acts of god and mother nature.

Historical Yield per Acre in pounds

Historical Bearing Acreage

[ source ] California Almond Board

It can be a challenge to interpret objective measurement reports. There is science to this and I’m sure there are people who are paid full time salaries to inform market players. Maybe just add 10% to the last guess and call it done.

But wait. There’s more to it. There is a keyword in the contest fine print that says: receipts. We have to analyze too the marketing aspect. Almond Packing Marketers (such as Panoche Creek) don’t always sell an entire crop in the year period of harvest. The excess is called a Carryin and this can amount to millions of pounds. The receipts amount to the number of pounds marketed. Best have a look at last month’s Position Report and will try and decipher.  Evidently there is a 3% Loss of the inventory every year due to critters, decay, age; this explains the difference between production and the remainder carryin/carryout. The tabulation below shows the receipt variable.

Year Yield Acreage Production Receipts
2007 1,840 610,000 1,122,400,000
2008 2,170 640,000 1,388,800,000
2009 2,300 710,000 1,633,000,000 1,606,372,490
2010 1,880 750,000 1,410,000,000 1,395,051,752
2011 2,130 770,000 1,640,100,000 1,618,404,740
2012 2,540 800,000 2,032,000,000 2,012,824,704
2013 2,300 820,000 1,886,000,000 1,878,596,013
2014 2,360 850,000 2,006,000,000 2,003,500,548
2015 2,150 880,000 1,892,000,000 1,888,243,454
2016 2,130 890,000 1,895,700,000 2,131,006,583
2017 ? ?? ??? ????
In a nutshell (sorry) we have the production to estimate and then figure how much of that as well might be counted as losses and then how well will the market absorb any carryin.
  • Our pick for 2017 should be: ????
  • Our number in 2016 was 1,989,499,000
  • Our number in 2015 was 1,789,000,000
  • Our number in 2014 was 1,901,449,000

Blue Diamond Growers Crop Progress Update Report for March

Observers are reporting that crop development increased dramatically in all regions under the influence of the warm conditions experienced during the first week of the period. As seen in the photos accompanying this report, nutlets have been differentiating in size, with the largest breaking free from their protective jackets. Leaf cover on the trees has also developed vary rapidly, allowing the trees to begin pulling nutrients and water from the soil. The trees have also begun the normal process of casting the smallest nutlets to the ground, while preserving the largest. Continue reading Almond Update →

  • Dormant
  • green tip
  • pink bud
  • popcorn
  • bloom
  • petal fall          1%
  • jacket            97%
  • out of jacket 2%

source: Blue Diamond Growers newsletter

 

The Bees Go To California

This is a 23 minute Podcast…

Every spring convoys of trucks arrive in the almond orchards of central California. They are carrying bees. Millions of them.

They arrive from all over the country, but especially southern states like Louisiana, and they have to get there at just the right time, when the almond trees start to flower so the bees can pollinate hundreds of acres of almond fields. Continue reading The Bees Go To California →

  • Dormant
  • green tip
  • pink bud
  • popcorn
  • bloom       3%
  • petal fall 19%
  • jacket      78%
  • out of jacket

source: Blue Diamond Growers newsletter

Tree Disposal Dilemma

Horticulture

Recycling the trees is ongoing. When a tree is blown down or keels over from weakness or disease it must be removed from the field. Depending on the number, this can result in a sizeable biomass. The dead wood can be chipped into mulch and lighter branches shredded. The mulch can be used by a nursery or converted into compost, a soil enhancement or placed on our dirt road to help control dust. Continue reading Tree Disposal Dilemma →

  • Dormant
  • green tip
  • pink bud
  • popcorn
  • bloom         84% (peak)
  • petal fall    14%
  • jacket            2%
  • out of jacket

source: Blue Diamond Growers newsletter