The National Agricultural Statistics Service has supplanted their [May] subjective report which had forecast improvement for this year’s almond crop. This month, their objective estimate is even rosier. Of note however is the number of nuts per tree down -7.2% but larger in size which would appear to recollect the 2010 harvest. 1 million bearing acres (!)
- Per Acre: 2,250 lbs. (-1%)
- Bearing Acres (Trees planted 2014 or earlier): 1,000,000 (+60,000 acres)
- VS. Subjective estimate of 2.2 Billion lbs: +2.3%
- VS. 2016 Receipts to-date of 2.134 Billion: +5.4%
- Nut set per Tree: 5,714: (-7.2%)
- Trees per Acre: 117 (up from 116)
- Kernel Weight: 1.57 grams (+3.5%)
- NASS found kernels to be wider, thicker, and longer than last year. The largest kernels since 2010.
We shall see if this outlook holds true for our orchard. Our ranch management is extremely reluctant to make yield predictions and comparisons so we rely on these global surveys for intel. This report details the sample testing procedures and predicts an 80% confidence level. The activity was funded by the Almond Board of California. Our mileage may vary.